NCAA Tournament March Madness
#271 Texas St
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Projection: need to automatically qualify
The projection that Texas State will need to secure the automatic berth is grounded in a résumé that features few résumé-enhancing scalps and several damaging setbacks away from home and on neutral floors. Nonconference showed vulnerability with neutral-site losses to Seattle and Lehigh and heavy defeats on the road at Bowling Green and Tulane, while league play has been marred by bad losses at Arkansas State and on the road at Troy that blunt the value of home victories over the likes of Arkansas Little Rock and Southern Miss. The program’s best moment is a gritty road win at ULM and a handful of solid home results, but the worst moments are the lopsided and late collapses that leave the committee with little to point to when weighing at-large cases. Upcoming home dates against Marshall and Old Dominion offer clear chances to build a stronger profile, yet road trips to Coastal Carolina, James Madison, Georgia Southern and South Alabama are precarious and could leave Texas State short of the marquee wins the committee prizes. Put simply, unless those remaining opportunities produce higher-quality wins away from home or on neutral sites, the safest and most realistic path to the field runs through winning the conference’s automatic bid.
| Date | Opponent | Ranking | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/3 | @Bowling Green | 112 | L83-48 |
| 11/8 | @Tulane | 190 | L79-71 |
| 11/12 | UT San Antonio | 348 | W80-69 |
| 11/15 | TX Southern | 339 | W77-67 |
| 11/18 | Abilene Chr | 255 | W63-49 |
| 11/21 | Ark Little Rock | 292 | W65-56 |
| 11/28 | (N)Seattle | 123 | L66-52 |
| 11/29 | (N)Lehigh | 307 | L78-74 |
| 12/3 | @Rice | 241 | L77-72 |
| 12/10 | Southern Univ | 252 | W86-83 |
| 12/17 | Arkansas St | 154 | L89-70 |
| 12/20 | South Alabama | 208 | W67-65 |
| 12/31 | @Troy | 113 | L100-80 |
| 1/3 | @ULM | 358 | W84-79 |
| 1/8 | @Southern Miss | 230 | L80-70 |
| 1/10 | @Arkansas St | 154 | L83-82 |
| 1/14 | Louisiana | 330 | W59-54 |
| 1/17 | Southern Miss | 230 | W74-67 |
| 1/22 | @Coastal Car | 247 | 33% |
| 1/24 | @James Madison | 239 | 32% |
| 1/28 | Marshall | 167 | 40% |
| 1/31 | Old Dominion | 242 | 54% |
| 2/4 | @Ga Southern | 244 | 33% |
| 2/7 | W Michigan | 253 | 56% |
| 2/11 | Troy | 113 | 27% |
| 2/14 | ULM | 358 | 87% |
| 2/19 | @South Alabama | 208 | 28% |
| 2/21 | @Louisiana | 330 | 54% |
| 2/27 | Appalachian St | 218 | 50% |